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BY MATT PFIFFNER
The top-ranked and defending NCAA Champion Iowa Hawkeyes welcome No. 2 Iowa State into Iowa City Saturday night for what promises to be one of the best duals in the history of this epic series.
Iowa is 8-0 on the season and has yet to be tested. The same can be said
for the Cyclones, who are 3-0.
Last year, the Cyclones entered the meet ranked No. 1, while Iowa was
No. 4. The Hawkeyes jumped out to a quick start with four straight wins
and went on to a 20-13 victory.
The crowd is always a factor when these two teams get together and
expect that to be the case again Saturday, as Iowa is hoping to break
the college dual attendance record of 15,646 set in 2002 in Minnesota in
a dual between the Gophers and Iowa. As of Thursday morning, approximately 13,500
tickets had been sold, with a capacity of 16,000. Here is a breakdown by weight of the dual. The Iowa wrestler is listed first. (Team and Individual Rankings by InterMat)
125 - #2 Charlie Falck, Sr. (8-0) vs. #5 Tyler Clark, So. (8-0) This will be Clark's first time in the big in-state dual, as Mark Kist, now at Wartburg, took on Falck last season and dropped a close decision. Flack, a two-time All-American for the Hawkeyes, nearly suffered his first loss of the season last weekend to a true freshman, but used his funk to throw his opponent to his back for a late fall. Falck is very dangerous from anywhere and Clark will have to stay in good position. Clark is as tough as they come on his feet, but will have to finish shots quickly, or else Falck may use his scrambling ability to come out on top. Expect a high-scoring match, as both of these wrestlers like to get after it from the opening whistle.
Predicament Pick: Falck 133 - #11 Daniel Dennis, Jr. (6-1) or Joe Slaton, Jr. (3-0) vs. #5 Nick Fanthorpe, Jr. (8-0) How this match turns out just may depend on who Iowa sends out there. Dennis has been in the lineup the majority of the time early on, as Slaton works on getting down to weight. Dennis suffered his first loss of the season in overtime to the ninth-ranked wrestler in the nation, so he has proven he is worthy of his ranking, despite missing most of last season with a broken jaw. If Slaton, the NCAA runner-up last season, is ready to go, it will be interested to see how strong he is for such a high-energy match early in the season. Fanthorpe has knocked off everyone he has met so far this season and no doubt would love another shot at Slaton, who he lost to in the dual meet last season and in the quarterfinals of the NCAA Championships.
Predicament Pick: Fanthorpe 141 - #3 Alex Tsirtsis, Sr. (6-0) vs. #2 Nick Gallick, Jr. (7-1) One of the premier matches of the night pits No. 2 Nick Gallick of ISU against third-ranked Alex Tsirtsis of Iowa. The Hawkeye senior sat out last season with a redshirt and has looked very good out of the chute. After earning All-American honors as a sophomore, Tsirtsis failed to do so as a junior. The year off appears to have helped. Gallick, who earned All-American honors last season, already owns a victory over the defending NCAA champ, J Jaggers of Ohio State, with an impressive win at the All-Star Meet. Both wrestlers can be explosive when they open up, but I expect more of a cautious, low-scoring affair with the winner being who can get that one key takedown. This is one match where I expect the crowd to play a role.
Predicament Pick: Tsirtsis 149 - #1 Brent Metcalf, Jr. (8-0) vs. #10 Mitch Mueller, Jr. (6-0) Although this match pits a pair of top 10 ranked wrestlers, there is no doubt who the clear favorite is. This is the first match of the dual where one team should expect bonus points. Metcalf has not lost in more than a year and defeated Mueller twice last season, including by a major decision in the dual. Metcalf, who has a 40-match win streak, is the most relentless wrestler in the nation and Mueller will have to be on top of his game to stay in the match. The defending NCAA champ already has several pins this season and no doubt would love to spark the Hawkeyes with one Saturday night. Mueller has had a solid two years at Iowa State, but has not earned All-American honors or earned many signature wins. This would definitely be one.
Predicament Pick: Metcalf 157 - Matt Ballweg, So. (6-2) vs. #7 Cyler Sanderson, Jr. (2-1) As with 149, there is a clear favorite here, as returning All-American Sanderson takes on the first-year starter Ballweg. The Cyclone junior nearly earned a pin in last year's dual and he is capable of earning bonus points for the team here. Ballweg is tough and has been competitive in all his matches, but no doubt will be facing his stiffest test of the season in a very wild environment. How Ballweg handles the pressure against the veteran Sanderson could decide how this match goes.
Predicament Pick: Sanderson 165 - #9 Ryan Morningstar, Jr. (8-0) vs. #3 Jon Reader, So. (8-0) This is a very interesting match, as Morningstar has moved up a weight class after two seasons at 157. The biggest win of his career came two years ago in this dual, as he defeated eventual NCAA champ Trent Paulson. The Hawkeye has been very solid to start the season and seems to be adjusting very well to the new weight class. Reader earned All-American honors last season as a freshman and has picked up right where he left off. The Cyclones are favored here, but a Morningstar win would not be a big surprise...at least not as big as two seasons ago.
Predicament Pick: Morningstar 174 - #2 Jay Borschel, Jr. (8-0) vs. #8 Duke Burk, Jr. (2-0) These two met last season when Burk was still wrestling for Northern Illinois. Borschel, who went on to finish third in the NCAA's, defeated Burk at the Midlands, 10-1. Burk is a two-time NCAA qualifier and fills in nicely where the Cyclones could have had a hole this season. Borschel has been dominating the opposition this season. He is tied with Metcalf for the team lead with five falls. Burk has not seen a lot of mat time this season and after coming from Northern Illinois, it will be interesting to see how he reacts to wrestling in a dual meet with thousands of screaming fans. Iowa may be looking for bonus points here.
Predicament Pick: Borschel 184 - #3 Phillip Keddy, Jr. (8-0) vs. Jerome Ward, Fr. (5-1) Keddy has improved so much the past two seasons it's not even funny. He's gone from a below .500 wrestler as a freshman to an All-American last season to a challenger for an NCAA title as a junior. Of his eight wins, five are by bonus points, including four falls. He will be a big favorite over the ISU freshman Ward, who promises to have a bright future for the Cardinal and Gold, but this may be a tough first Iowa-ISU dual for him. One of the things most difficult about wrestling Keddy is that he's so quick underneath, it's nearly impossible to ride him. Ward will more than likely have to win on his feet if he's going to pull off the upset.
Predicament Pick: Keddy 197 - Luke Lofthouse, So. (1-1) or Brodie Ambrose, Fr. (4-0) vs. #1 Jake Varner, Jr. (7-0) With the injury to Iowa's 19th-ranked Chad Beatty, this match goes from a possible win by decision for the Cyclones to a possible major, tech fall or pin for the top-ranked Varner. The Cyclone, a two-time NCAA runner-up at 184, is definitely enjoying his move up a weight. He has already destroyed the second-ranked wrestler at his weight and there's no reason to expect anything less than a major here. Varner appears to be opening up more on offense this season and that is bad news for his opponents. Lofthouse has varsity experience over Ambrose and even wrestled in this dual in 2004 before taking two years off on a Mormon mission. But maybe Iowa will throw the native Iowan out there and see how Ambrose can do.
Predicament Pick: Varner 285 - #16 Dan Erekson, Jr. (7-0) vs. #2 David Zabriskie, Jr. (7-0) Believe it or not, this may actually be an entertaining heavyweight match. That was usually not the case last year when Zabriskie and Iowa's Matt Fields locked horns. The Cyclone, coming off an All-American finish as a sophomore and looking strong at the start of the season, is obviously favored here. But Erekson, who wrestled at 197 as a freshman and sophomore and then redshirted to get used to heavyweight last year, has also started the year in impressive fashion, with five pins in his seven wins. Zabriskie has proven he can win big matches, while Erekson still has to do it.
Predicament Pick: Zabriskie
According to my math, I have Iowa winning six matches and the Cyclones
four. I had it the opposite way last season and the Hawks won easily.
This meet is always tough to pick, because many of the matches are just
too close to call. It is no different this season, as I could see six or
seven of the matches going either way. The only matches where I would
consider one wrestler a prohibitive favorite are at 149, 184 and 197.
You can throw heavyweight in there as well, but you never know what's
going to happen when two good big men start rolling around on the mat.
Last year, Iowa shocked many in the wrestling world with so-called upset
wins at 133 and 141 to get the ball rolling. If ISU is going to take the
No. 1 ranking away, they'll need someone unexpected to step up, like
Burk or Ward.
I could see either team winning this dual by four or five points, but I
definitely don't see a blowout either way. If the stands are packed to
the rafters and Iowa gets on an early roll, then maybe. But I just don't
see that happening.
Final Score Prediction: Iowa 20, Iowa State 15 All-Time Series: Iowa leads 55-16-2
Series in Iowa City: Iowa leads 28-5-1 |
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